County 06283, CA · Census Tract 06283760006 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$3.52M
Downside (P10)
$1.64M
-53% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.34M
-33% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.75M
-22% by 2030
Base case: -33% by 2030, with a forecast range from -53% to -22%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 06283 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $3.5M | $3.4M | $2.9M | $2.5M | $2.3M |
| YoY Change | -2.7% | -14.4% | -15.8% | -5.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $2.5M | $2.1M | $1.8M | $1.6M | |
| Upside (P90) | $3.8M | $3.4M | $2.9M | $2.7M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$2.91M to $3.79M
25.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.64M to $2.75M
47.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 160004 | $3.63M | $2.46M | -32.3% |
| Tract 880009 | $3.65M | $2.77M | -24.2% |
| Tract 600001 | $3.29M | $2.27M | -31.0% |
| Tract 960000 | $4.19M | $2.78M | -33.7% |
| Tract 840007 | $2.15M | $1.71M | -20.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 840007 | $2.15M | $1.71M | -20.4% |
| Tract 880009 | $3.65M | $2.77M | -24.2% |
| Tract 600001 | $3.29M | $2.27M | -31.0% |
| Tract 080003 | $6.21M | $4.24M | -31.7% |
| Tract 160004 | $3.63M | $2.46M | -32.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 960000 | $4.19M | $2.78M | $933K |
| Tract 600001 | $3.29M | $2.27M | $945K |
| Tract 840007 | $2.15M | $1.71M | $1.12M |
| Tract 160004 | $3.63M | $2.46M | $1.44M |
| Tract 880009 | $3.65M | $2.77M | $1.84M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources