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Los Angeles, CA · ZIP 90221 · Census Tract 06037542401 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$623K
Downside (P10)
$533K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$648K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$928K
+49% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $261K | $281K | $284K | $310K | $386K | $392K | $445K | $565K | $591K | $616K | $623K | $623K | $639K | $648K | $643K |
| YoY Change | +7.6% | +0.9% | +9.3% | +24.4% | +1.7% | +13.3% | +27.1% | +4.5% | +4.3% | +1.2% | -0.1% | +2.7% | +1.4% | -0.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $553K | $562K | $533K | $566K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $774K | $838K | $928K | $718K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$553K to $774K
35.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$566K to $718K
23.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compton | $617K | $648K | +5.0% | |
| Los Angeles (Tract 106648) | $623K | $717K | +15.2% | |
| Los Angeles (Tract 134802) | $623K | $710K | +14.0% | |
| Los Angeles (Tract 238200) | $623K | $702K | +12.7% | |
| Norwalk | $623K | $674K | +8.2% | |
| Palmdale | $623K | $658K | +5.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compton | $617K | $648K | +5.0% | |
| Los Angeles (Tract 209201) | $1.05M | $1.34M | +27.1% | |
| Los Angeles (Tract 267700) | $1.09M | $1.38M | +26.3% | |
| Los Angeles (Tract 125200) | $1.18M | $1.48M | +25.5% | |
| Los Angeles (Tract 267201) | $968K | $1.19M | +22.8% | |
| Long Beach | $728K | $893K | +22.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compton | $617K | $648K | $395K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 900509) | $178K | $195K | $92K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 900602) | $118K | $137K | $70K | |
| Long Beach | $105K | $112K | $61K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 900610) | $86K | $96K | $46K | |
| Bell | $69K | $72K | $39K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.