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Merced, CA · ZIP 95301 · Census Tract 06047000505 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$368K
Downside (P10)
$317K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$417K
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$526K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $144K | $157K | $159K | $169K | $189K | $189K | $242K | $270K | $334K | $357K | $368K | $383K | $410K | $417K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$223,872 | -$210,672 | -$208,972 | -$199,072 | -$178,872 | -$178,572 | -$125,972 | -$97,972 | -$33,872 | -$10,972 | +$14,888 | +$42,033 | +$49,064 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -60.9% | -57.3% | -56.8% | -54.1% | -48.6% | -48.5% | -34.2% | -26.6% | -9.2% | -3.0% | +4.0% | +11.4% | +13.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $316K | $321K | $317K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $431K | $492K | $526K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$316K to $431K
30.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$317K to $526K
50.1% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Merced, CA · ZIP 95301 · Census Tract 06047000505 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$368K
Downside (P10)
$317K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$417K
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$526K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $144K | $157K | $159K | $169K | $189K | $189K | $242K | $270K | $334K | $357K | $368K | $383K | $410K | $417K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$223,872 | -$210,672 | -$208,972 | -$199,072 | -$178,872 | -$178,572 | -$125,972 | -$97,972 | -$33,872 | -$10,972 | +$14,888 | +$42,033 | +$49,064 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -60.9% | -57.3% | -56.8% | -54.1% | -48.6% | -48.5% | -34.2% | -26.6% | -9.2% | -3.0% | +4.0% | +11.4% | +13.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $316K | $321K | $317K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $431K | $492K | $526K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$316K to $431K
30.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$317K to $526K
50.1% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
