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Merced, CA · ZIP 93635 · Census Tract 06047002304 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$553K
Downside (P10)
$482K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$637K
+15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$810K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $351K | $356K | $548K | $486K | $535K | $553K | $574K | $612K | $637K |
| YoY Change | +1.5% | +54.0% | -11.4% | +10.0% | +3.5% | +3.8% | +6.5% | +4.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $500K | $481K | $482K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $644K | $721K | $810K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$500K to $644K
25.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$482K to $810K
51.5% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources