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San Diego, CA · ZIP 92040 · Census Tract 06073016810 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$858K
Downside (P10)
$754K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$857K
-0% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.13M
+32% by 2030
Base case: -0% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $382K | $391K | $432K | $456K | $495K | $561K | $593K | $645K | $747K | $824K | $858K | $854K | $847K | $857K |
| YoY Change | +2.4% | +10.5% | +5.6% | +8.4% | +13.4% | +5.6% | +8.8% | +15.9% | +10.3% | +4.2% | -0.6% | -0.8% | +1.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $738K | $743K | $754K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$738K to $1.06M
37.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$754K to $1.13M
44.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakeside | $851K | $857K | +0.7% | |
| San Diego (Tract 002904) | $859K | $961K | +11.9% | |
| San Diego (Tract 002302) | $858K | $953K | +11.1% | |
| Fallbrook | $857K | $936K | +9.3% | |
| San Diego (Tract 009804) | $861K | $940K | +9.2% | |
| San Diego (Tract 016608) | $861K | $930K | +8.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakeside | $851K | $857K | +0.7% | |
| San Diego (Tract 009305) | $878K | $1.07M | +21.6% | |
| Encinitas | $2.04M | $2.46M | +20.8% | |
| San Diego (Tract 004102) | $990K | $1.19M | +20.1% | |
| San Diego (Tract 017070) | $1.62M | $1.95M | +20.1% | |
| San Diego (Tract 009802) | $879K | $1.05M | +20.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakeside | $851K | $857K | $379K | |
| Escondido | $201K | $215K | $124K | |
| San Diego | $82K | $84K | $57K | |
| Chula Vista | $95K | $97K | $55K | |
| El Cajon | $100K | $105K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.