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San Jose, CA · ZIP 95037 · Census Tract 06085512310 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.20M
Downside (P10)
$1.02M
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.31M
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.05M
+71% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +71%. The model forecasts this with 57% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $501K | $584K | $582K | $736K | $794K | $790K | $809K | $949K | $1.0M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.3M |
| YoY Change | +16.6% | -0.3% | +26.4% | +7.9% | -0.5% | +2.4% | +17.3% | +7.2% | +16.9% | +0.9% | +2.2% | +1.5% | +5.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.1M | $1.0M | $1.0M | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.5M | $1.7M | $2.1M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. Short-term confidence is moderate but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$1.05M to $1.49M
36.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.02M to $2.05M
78.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Santa Clara Valley | $1.21M | $1.31M | +8.2% | |
| San Jose (Tract 504323) | $1.20M | $1.34M | +11.3% | |
| San Jose (Tract 504411) | $1.20M | $1.34M | +12.2% | |
| San Jose (Tract 505006) | $1.21M | $1.31M | +8.3% | |
| San Jose (Tract 505203) | $1.21M | $1.34M | +10.6% | |
| Campbell | $1.21M | $1.31M | +8.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Santa Clara Valley | $1.21M | $1.31M | +8.2% | |
| San Jose (Tract 501601) | $1.05M | $1.30M | +24.0% | |
| Gilroy | $903K | $1.11M | +22.5% | |
| South Santa Clara Valley | $880K | $1.07M | +21.5% | |
| San Jose (Tract 503506) | $906K | $1.10M | +21.0% | |
| San Jose (Tract 503110) | $722K | $872K | +20.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Santa Clara Valley | $1.21M | $1.31M | $1.04M | |
| San Jose (Tract 504601) | $189K | $198K | $96K | |
| San Jose (Tract 503123) | $176K | $184K | $115K | |
| San Jose (Tract 503222) | $219K | $220K | $127K | |
| San Jose (Tract 503122) | $236K | $249K | $128K | |
| San Jose (Tract 505014) | $312K | $337K | $131K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.