What is the home price forecast for Parcel 06087110505 in Watsonville?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $470,073 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 4.2%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 06087110505 in Watsonville?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $470,073 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 4.2%.

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Parcel 06087110505 (Watsonville) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 06087110505, Watsonville Home Price Forecast

Santa Cruz, CA · ZIP 95076 · Census Tract 06087110505 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$470K

Downside (P10)

$396K

-16% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$490K

+4% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$645K

+37% by 2030

Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$422K	$447K	$485K	$466K	$445K	$470K	$475K	$491K	$490K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$48,173	-$22,673	+$15,327	-$4,473	-$25,073		+$4,428	+$20,876	+$19,664
Growth % vs 2026	-10.2%	-4.8%	+3.3%	-1.0%	-5.3%		+0.9%	+4.4%	+4.2%
Downside (P10)							$405K	$401K	$396K
Upside (P90)							$573K	$578K	$645K

Forecast Confidence

72%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.

Near-term band

$405K to $573K

35.5% of median

Long-horizon band

$396K to $645K

51.0% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +4.2% · Spread: 51%

·The forecast implies relatively stable values through the full horizon, with modest movements in either direction.
·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 06087110505, Watsonville on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).