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Arapahoe, CO · ZIP 80231 · Census Tract 08005087200 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$776K
Downside (P10)
$638K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$876K
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.15M
+49% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $442K | $428K | $453K | $439K | $484K | $569K | $696K | $741K | $796K | $751K | $776K | $807K | $827K | $876K |
| YoY Change | -3.3% | +5.9% | -3.0% | +10.1% | +17.7% | +22.3% | +6.4% | +7.4% | -5.6% | +3.3% | +4.1% | +2.5% | +5.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $648K | $658K | $638K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $932K | $1.1M | $1.2M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$648K to $932K
35.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$638K to $1.15M
59.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hampden South · 80231 · (Tract 872) | $743K | $876K | +17.9% | |
| Centennial (Tract 085200) | $765K | $880K | +15.0% | |
| Centennial (Tract 006708) | $761K | $868K | +14.2% | |
| Littleton | $770K | $875K | +13.6% | |
| Aurora | $788K | $863K | +9.5% | |
| Centennial (Tract 006706) | $771K | $816K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hampden South · 80231 · (Tract 872) | $743K | $876K | +17.9% | |
| South Aurora | $661K | $797K | +20.5% | |
| Englewood | $566K | $677K | +19.6% | |
| Centennial | $634K | $756K | +19.3% | |
| Southwest Arapahoe (Tract 006862) | $926K | $1.10M | +18.7% | |
| Southwest Arapahoe (Tract 006863) | $496K | $584K | +17.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hampden South · 80231 · (Tract 872) | $743K | $876K | $517K | |
| Aurora (Tract 081001) | $261K | $284K | $181K | |
| Aurora (Tract 083900) | $404K | $448K | $174K | |
| Aurora (Tract 081500) | $345K | $359K | $165K | |
| Hampden | $288K | $294K | $163K | |
| Aurora (Tract 081102) | $285K | $303K | $138K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.