Douglas, CO · ZIP 80124 · Census Tract 08035014116 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.06M
Downside (P10)
$872K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.19M
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.63M
+54% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +54%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar Douglas markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $801K | $813K | $824K | $845K | $880K | $884K | $879K | $990K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M |
| YoY Change | +1.6% | +1.3% | +2.6% | +4.1% | +0.5% | -0.6% | +12.6% | +1.2% | +4.9% | +1.1% | +3.5% | +3.1% | +4.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $908K | $857K | $872K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.6M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$908K to $1.35M
39.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$872K to $1.63M
63.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone Tree · 80124 · (Tract 141.16) | $1.03M | $1.19M | +15.0% | |
| Parker | $1.08M | $1.20M | +10.5% | |
| Castle Rock | $998K | $1.14M | +14.5% | |
| Sedalia | $997K | $1.02M | +2.6% | |
| Sedalia | $1.16M | $1.20M | +3.5% | |
| Parker | $955K | $995K | +4.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone Tree · 80124 · (Tract 141.16) | $1.03M | $1.19M | +15.0% | |
| Parker | $593K | $717K | +20.8% | |
| Stonegate | $582K | $682K | +17.2% | |
| Parker | $713K | $833K | +16.8% | |
| Sedalia | $909K | $1.05M | +15.6% | |
| Castle Rock | $998K | $1.14M | +14.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone Tree · 80124 · (Tract 141.16) | $1.03M | $1.19M | $758K | |
| Parker | $439K | $462K | $240K | |
| Parker | $637K | $686K | $287K | |
| Castle Rock | $591K | $589K | $296K | |
| Castle Rock | $501K | $547K | $306K | |
| Sedalia | $594K | $669K | $307K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.