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Garfield, CO · ZIP 81623 · Census Tract 08045951804 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.10M
Downside (P10)
$866K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.17M
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.50M
+37% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $556K | $585K | $598K | $584K | $619K | $701K | $719K | $815K | $926K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$541,813 | -$513,513 | -$500,613 | -$513,713 | -$478,913 | -$397,413 | -$379,213 | -$283,013 | -$171,813 | -$26,513 | +$70,876 | +$88,297 | +$76,617 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -49.3% | -46.8% | -45.6% | -46.8% | -43.6% | -36.2% | -34.5% | -25.8% | -15.6% | -2.4% | +6.5% | +8.0% | +7.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $856K | $866K | $866K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.5M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$856K to $1.3M
39.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$866K to $1.5M
54.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenwood Springs | $1.08M | $1.17M | +9.1% | |
| Glenwood Springs (Tract 951702) | $664K | $766K | +15.4% | |
| Glenwood Springs (Tract 951600) | $727K | $775K | +6.6% | |
| Glenwood Springs (Tract 951802) | $1.12M | $1.18M | +5.8% | |
| Glenwood Springs (Tract 951803) | $888K | $929K | +4.7% | |
| Glenwood Springs (Tract 951701) | $614K | $642K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenwood Springs | $1.08M | $1.17M | +9.1% | |
| Glenwood Springs (Tract 951702) | $664K | $766K | +15.4% | |
| New Castle | $474K | $531K | +12.0% | |
| Glenwood Springs (Tract 951600) | $727K | $775K | +6.6% | |
| Rifle | $508K | $540K | +6.1% | |
| West Garfield | $314K | $332K | +5.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenwood Springs | $1.08M | $1.17M | $638K | |
| New Castle | $538K | $567K | $317K | |
| Rifle (Tract 952003) | $508K | $540K | $261K | |
| Rifle (Tract 952004) | $456K | $470K | $249K | |
| West Garfield | $314K | $332K | $206K | |
| Rifle (Tract 952001) | $327K | $330K | $179K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Garfield, CO · ZIP 81623 · Census Tract 08045951804 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.10M
Downside (P10)
$866K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.17M
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.50M
+37% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $556K | $585K | $598K | $584K | $619K | $701K | $719K | $815K | $926K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$541,813 | -$513,513 | -$500,613 | -$513,713 | -$478,913 | -$397,413 | -$379,213 | -$283,013 | -$171,813 | -$26,513 | +$70,876 | +$88,297 | +$76,617 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -49.3% | -46.8% | -45.6% | -46.8% | -43.6% | -36.2% | -34.5% | -25.8% | -15.6% | -2.4% | +6.5% | +8.0% | +7.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $856K | $866K | $866K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.5M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$856K to $1.3M
39.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$866K to $1.5M
54.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenwood Springs | $1.08M | $1.17M | +9.1% | |
| Glenwood Springs (Tract 951702) | $664K | $766K | +15.4% | |
| Glenwood Springs (Tract 951600) | $727K | $775K | +6.6% | |
| Glenwood Springs (Tract 951802) | $1.12M | $1.18M | +5.8% | |
| Glenwood Springs (Tract 951803) | $888K | $929K | +4.7% | |
| Glenwood Springs (Tract 951701) | $614K | $642K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenwood Springs | $1.08M | $1.17M | +9.1% | |
| Glenwood Springs (Tract 951702) | $664K | $766K | +15.4% | |
| New Castle | $474K | $531K | +12.0% | |
| Glenwood Springs (Tract 951600) | $727K | $775K | +6.6% | |
| Rifle | $508K | $540K | +6.1% | |
| West Garfield | $314K | $332K | +5.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenwood Springs | $1.08M | $1.17M | $638K | |
| New Castle | $538K | $567K | $317K | |
| Rifle (Tract 952003) | $508K | $540K | $261K | |
| Rifle (Tract 952004) | $456K | $470K | $249K | |
| West Garfield | $314K | $332K | $206K | |
| Rifle (Tract 952001) | $327K | $330K | $179K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
