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Lower Connecticut River Valley, CT · Census Tract 09130630102 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$809K
Downside (P10)
$697K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$844K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.06M
+31% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +31%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $709K | $748K | $763K | $809K | $819K | $848K | $844K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$100,150 | -$61,150 | -$46,050 | +$9,593 | +$38,623 | +$35,420 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -12.4% | -7.6% | -5.7% | +1.2% | +4.8% | +4.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $714K | $682K | $697K | |||||
| Upside (P90) | $942K | $982K | $1.1M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$714K to $942K
27.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$697K to $1.1M
43.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essex Village | $794K | $844K | +6.4% | |
| Old Lyme (Tract 660104) | $512K | $586K | +14.5% | |
| Lyme | $639K | $683K | +6.8% | |
| Old Saybrook (Tract 670200) | $567K | $597K | +5.3% | |
| Old Saybrook (Tract 670100) | $498K | $523K | +5.1% | |
| Old Lyme (Tract 660103) | $517K | $539K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essex Village | $794K | $844K | +6.4% | |
| Middletown (Tract 542200) | $256K | $306K | +19.3% | |
| Middletown (Tract 541302) | $233K | $270K | +16.1% | |
| Middletown (Tract 541700) | $225K | $260K | +15.6% | |
| East Hampton | $367K | $423K | +15.1% | |
| Old Lyme | $512K | $586K | +14.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essex Village | $794K | $844K | $366K | |
| Middletown (Tract 541200) | $286K | $312K | $127K | |
| Middletown (Tract 541302) | $233K | $270K | $126K | |
| Middletown (Tract 542000) | $276K | $291K | $124K | |
| Middletown (Tract 541301) | $168K | $186K | $92K | |
| Middletown (Tract 541100) | $199K | $215K | $82K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Lower Connecticut River Valley, CT · Census Tract 09130630102 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$809K
Downside (P10)
$697K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$844K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.06M
+31% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +31%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $709K | $748K | $763K | $809K | $819K | $848K | $844K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$100,150 | -$61,150 | -$46,050 | +$9,593 | +$38,623 | +$35,420 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -12.4% | -7.6% | -5.7% | +1.2% | +4.8% | +4.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $714K | $682K | $697K | |||||
| Upside (P90) | $942K | $982K | $1.1M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$714K to $942K
27.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$697K to $1.1M
43.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essex Village | $794K | $844K | +6.4% | |
| Old Lyme (Tract 660104) | $512K | $586K | +14.5% | |
| Lyme | $639K | $683K | +6.8% | |
| Old Saybrook (Tract 670200) | $567K | $597K | +5.3% | |
| Old Saybrook (Tract 670100) | $498K | $523K | +5.1% | |
| Old Lyme (Tract 660103) | $517K | $539K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essex Village | $794K | $844K | +6.4% | |
| Middletown (Tract 542200) | $256K | $306K | +19.3% | |
| Middletown (Tract 541302) | $233K | $270K | +16.1% | |
| Middletown (Tract 541700) | $225K | $260K | +15.6% | |
| East Hampton | $367K | $423K | +15.1% | |
| Old Lyme | $512K | $586K | +14.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essex Village | $794K | $844K | $366K | |
| Middletown (Tract 541200) | $286K | $312K | $127K | |
| Middletown (Tract 541302) | $233K | $270K | $126K | |
| Middletown (Tract 542000) | $276K | $291K | $124K | |
| Middletown (Tract 541301) | $168K | $186K | $92K | |
| Middletown (Tract 541100) | $199K | $215K | $82K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
