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Naugatuck Valley, CT · Census Tract 09140110602 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$493K
Downside (P10)
$448K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$564K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$752K
+52% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +52%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $434K | $449K | $476K | $493K | $498K | $522K | $564K | $500K |
| YoY Change | +3.4% | +5.9% | +3.7% | +1.0% | +4.8% | +8.1% | -11.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $448K | $444K | $448K | $446K | ||||
| Upside (P90) | $627K | $727K | $752K | $563K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$448K to $627K
36.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$446K to $563K
23.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelton | $479K | $564K | +17.7% | |
| Shelton (Tract 110400) | $506K | $544K | +7.6% | |
| Shelton (Tract 110302) | $503K | $541K | +7.5% | |
| Shelton (Tract 110500) | $481K | $515K | +7.1% | |
| Southbury | $489K | $518K | +6.0% | |
| Oxford | $487K | $499K | +2.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelton | $479K | $564K | $304K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 351000) | $181K | $206K | $101K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 352800) | $211K | $224K | $99K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 350200) | $185K | $203K | $97K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 351100) | $150K | $163K | $85K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 352701) | $142K | $160K | $81K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.