County 11783, DC · Census Tract 11783000426 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$4.37M
Downside (P10)
$1.93M
-56% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.81M
-36% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$3.46M
-21% by 2030
Base case: -36% by 2030, with a forecast range from -56% to -21%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 11783 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $4.4M | $4.2M | $3.5M | $3.0M | $2.8M |
| YoY Change | -4.2% | -15.4% | -13.9% | -7.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $3.2M | $2.6M | $2.1M | $1.9M | |
| Upside (P90) | $4.7M | $4.1M | $3.5M | $3.5M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$3.65M to $4.80M
26.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.93M to $3.46M
54.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000549 | $4.43M | $2.79M | -36.9% |
| Tract 000662 | $4.44M | $2.79M | -37.3% |
| Tract 000303 | $4.24M | $2.89M | -31.7% |
| Tract 000963 | $4.60M | $3.09M | -32.9% |
| Tract 000866 | $4.72M | $2.89M | -38.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000303 | $4.24M | $2.89M | -31.7% |
| Tract 000963 | $4.60M | $3.09M | -32.9% |
| Tract 000701 | $5.08M | $3.30M | -35.1% |
| Tract 000028 | $4.01M | $2.56M | -36.1% |
| Tract 000468 | $5.01M | $3.20M | -36.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000549 | $4.43M | $2.79M | $1.45M |
| Tract 000303 | $4.24M | $2.89M | $1.45M |
| Tract 000963 | $4.60M | $3.09M | $1.57M |
| Tract 000824 | $4.84M | $2.93M | $1.63M |
| Tract 000701 | $5.08M | $3.30M | $1.72M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources