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New Castle, DE · ZIP 19802 · Census Tract 10003000602 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$159K
Downside (P10)
$140K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$174K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$211K
+33% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +33%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $93K | $90K | $94K | $86K | $86K | $93K | $86K | $93K | $100K | $151K | $159K | $161K | $165K | $174K | $156K |
| YoY Change | -2.9% | +4.3% | -8.1% | -0.3% | +7.5% | -7.0% | +7.7% | +7.6% | +51.2% | +5.3% | +1.8% | +2.5% | +5.3% | -10.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $139K | $140K | $140K | $138K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $185K | $205K | $211K | $178K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$139K to $185K
28.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$138K to $178K
25.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilmington | $154K | $174K | +13.5% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000500) | $179K | $195K | +8.8% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 002300) | $148K | $159K | +7.4% | |
| New Castle | $167K | $179K | +7.0% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 002600) | $171K | $180K | +5.5% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000601) | $153K | $158K | +3.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilmington | $154K | $174K | +13.5% | |
| Wilmington | $260K | $316K | +21.6% | |
| Middletown-Odessa | $464K | $555K | +19.7% | |
| Brandywine | $394K | $464K | +17.6% | |
| Brookside | $272K | $317K | +16.7% | |
| New Castle | $279K | $325K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilmington | $154K | $174K | $72K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 002300) | $148K | $159K | $102K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000601) | $153K | $158K | $100K | |
| New Castle | $167K | $179K | $88K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000900) | $114K | $128K | $74K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 002900) | $100K | $112K | $46K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.