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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Alachua, FL · ZIP 32653 · Census Tract 12001001811 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$521K
Downside (P10)
$448K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$606K
+16% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$775K
+49% by 2030
Base case: +16% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $275K | $255K | $264K | $328K | $354K | $322K | $403K | $500K | $504K | $515K | $521K | $535K | $566K | $606K | $536K |
| YoY Change | -7.3% | +3.8% | +24.1% | +8.0% | -9.1% | +25.2% | +24.0% | +0.7% | +2.3% | +1.1% | +2.7% | +5.8% | +7.0% | -11.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $452K | $446K | $448K | $471K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $641K | $672K | $775K | $600K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$452K to $641K
35.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$471K to $600K
24.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Springs-Alachua · Gainesville · (Tract 18.11) | $510K | $606K | +18.7% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002204) | $410K | $513K | +25.3% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002208) | $588K | $646K | +9.8% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002222) | $451K | $489K | +8.4% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002207) | $393K | $423K | +7.7% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002221) | $383K | $399K | +4.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Springs-Alachua · Gainesville · (Tract 18.11) | $510K | $606K | +18.7% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 002204) | $410K | $513K | +25.3% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001516) | $180K | $214K | +18.8% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001605) | $244K | $286K | +17.4% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001515) | $171K | $198K | +16.3% | |
| Gainesville (Tract 000202) | $250K | $290K | +15.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Springs-Alachua · Gainesville · (Tract 18.11) | $510K | $606K | $327K | |
| Hawthorne | $174K | $182K | $92K | |
| Gainesville (Tract 000700) | $149K | $157K | $80K | |
| Gainesville (Tract 000600) | $160K | $171K | $77K | |
| Gainesville (Tract 001400) | $126K | $136K | $67K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.