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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Bay, FL · ZIP 32401 · Census Tract 12005001000 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$203K
Downside (P10)
$177K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$216K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$269K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $75K | $84K | $96K | $100K | $104K | $128K | $132K | $152K | $207K | $196K | $203K | $206K | $219K | $216K | $203K |
| YoY Change | +11.6% | +14.6% | +3.3% | +4.0% | +23.2% | +3.8% | +14.8% | +36.5% | -5.7% | +3.9% | +1.5% | +6.4% | -1.7% | -6.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $184K | $186K | $177K | $183K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $241K | $263K | $269K | $227K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$184K to $241K
27.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$183K to $227K
21.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama City | $198K | $216K | +8.7% | |
| Youngstown | $202K | $224K | +11.1% | |
| Panama City (Tract 001600) | $224K | $243K | +8.6% | |
| Panama City (Tract 001200) | $208K | $225K | +8.5% | |
| Panama City (Tract 002400) | $178K | $192K | +7.5% | |
| Panama City (Tract 000900) | $229K | $245K | +7.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama City | $198K | $216K | +8.7% | |
| Panama City Beaches | $464K | $548K | +18.0% | |
| Lynn Haven | $364K | $426K | +16.8% | |
| Panama City Beach | $492K | $564K | +14.5% | |
| Callaway | $237K | $270K | +13.8% | |
| Panama City | $417K | $469K | +12.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama City | $198K | $216K | $92K | |
| Youngstown (Tract 000302) | $202K | $224K | $101K | |
| Panama City (Tract 000803) | $176K | $189K | $95K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001800) | $166K | $173K | $95K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001700) | $169K | $180K | $75K | |
| Youngstown (Tract 000301) | $124K | $130K | $73K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.