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Collier, FL · ZIP 34104 · Census Tract 12021010601 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$538K
Downside (P10)
$443K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$599K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$782K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $198K | $215K | $220K | $213K | $190K | $204K | $233K | $325K | $367K | $504K | $538K | $560K | $594K | $599K |
| YoY Change | +8.9% | +2.2% | -3.0% | -11.2% | +7.5% | +14.5% | +39.2% | +13.2% | +37.3% | +6.6% | +4.1% | +6.0% | +0.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $463K | $478K | $443K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $658K | $704K | $782K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$463K to $658K
34.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$443K to $782K
56.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naples · 34104 · (Tract 106.1) | $520K | $599K | +15.3% | |
| Naples (Tract 010424) | $538K | $548K | +2.0% | |
| Naples (Tract 010430) | $539K | $570K | +5.7% | |
| Naples (Tract 010401) | $528K | $611K | +15.7% | |
| Naples (Tract 010107) | $524K | $528K | +0.7% | |
| Naples (Tract 010438) | $522K | $572K | +9.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naples · 34104 · (Tract 106.1) | $520K | $599K | +15.3% | |
| Naples (Tract 000500) | $2.11M | $2.50M | +18.5% | |
| Naples (Tract 010428) | $441K | $517K | +17.2% | |
| Everglades | $796K | $932K | +17.0% | |
| Naples (Tract 010513) | $481K | $562K | +16.9% | |
| Marco Island | $881K | $1.02M | +15.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naples · 34104 · (Tract 106.1) | $520K | $599K | $339K | |
| Immokalee (Tract 011204) | $221K | $232K | $102K | |
| Immokalee (Tract 011306) | $204K | $221K | $113K | |
| Immokalee (Tract 011305) | $186K | $200K | $116K | |
| Everglades | $216K | $228K | $117K | |
| Naples | $231K | $262K | $133K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.