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Collier, FL · ZIP 34145 · Census Tract 12021010905 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$841K
Downside (P10)
$682K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$903K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.27M
+50% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $508K | $469K | $532K | $618K | $799K | $748K | $787K | $851K | $845K | $824K | $841K | $876K | $903K | $903K | $858K |
| YoY Change | -7.6% | +13.3% | +16.1% | +29.4% | -6.4% | +5.2% | +8.2% | -0.7% | -2.6% | +2.1% | +4.1% | +3.1% | +0.1% | -5.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $639K | $660K | $682K | $748K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.3M | $960K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$639K to $1.10M
52.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$748K to $960K
24.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Island | $845K | $903K | +7.0% | |
| Marco Island | $844K | $946K | +12.1% | |
| Naples (Tract 010431) | $810K | $889K | +9.7% | |
| Naples (Tract 010432) | $865K | $949K | +9.6% | |
| Naples (Tract 010433) | $853K | $931K | +9.2% | |
| Naples (Tract 010216) | $814K | $883K | +8.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Island | $845K | $903K | +7.0% | |
| Naples (Tract 000500) | $2.11M | $2.50M | +18.5% | |
| Naples (Tract 010428) | $441K | $517K | +17.2% | |
| Everglades | $796K | $932K | +17.0% | |
| Naples (Tract 010513) | $481K | $562K | +16.9% | |
| Marco Island | $881K | $1.02M | +15.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Island | $845K | $903K | $583K | |
| Naples | $231K | $262K | $133K | |
| Everglades | $216K | $228K | $117K | |
| Immokalee (Tract 011305) | $186K | $200K | $116K | |
| Immokalee (Tract 011306) | $204K | $221K | $113K | |
| Immokalee (Tract 011204) | $221K | $232K | $102K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.