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Duval, FL · ZIP 32254 · Census Tract 12031012100 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$89K
Downside (P10)
$80K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$99K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$142K
+59% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +59%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $67K | $65K | $62K | $74K | $84K | $78K | $90K | $154K | $102K | $86K | $89K | $92K | $96K | $99K |
| YoY Change | -2.5% | -4.9% | +19.4% | +13.6% | -6.8% | +15.2% | +70.6% | -33.3% | -15.6% | +3.3% | +2.9% | +4.3% | +3.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $82K | $82K | $80K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $114K | $127K | $142K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$82K to $114K
34.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$80K to $142K
62.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville · 32254 · (Tract 121) | $88K | $99K | +12.9% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 000300) | $89K | $93K | +4.6% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 000200) | $91K | $98K | +7.4% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 002902) | $96K | $98K | +1.8% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 011600) | $97K | $100K | +3.6% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 002901) | $98K | $102K | +3.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville · 32254 · (Tract 121) | $88K | $99K | +12.9% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 016810) | $426K | $519K | +21.9% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 001500) | $99K | $119K | +20.9% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 014424) | $438K | $522K | +19.1% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 010601) | $277K | $328K | +18.7% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 010203) | $283K | $336K | +18.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville · 32254 · (Tract 121) | $88K | $99K | $62K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 001600) | $77K | $85K | $40K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 000200) | $91K | $98K | $49K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 002600) | $80K | $86K | $49K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 002802) | $77K | $91K | $50K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 000300) | $89K | $93K | $55K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.