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Hernando, FL · ZIP 34602 · Census Tract 12053040301 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$340K
Downside (P10)
$284K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$352K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$479K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $120K | $118K | $128K | $153K | $171K | $206K | $212K | $231K | $240K | $336K | $340K | $346K | $364K | $352K |
| YoY Change | -2.0% | +8.7% | +19.4% | +12.0% | +20.2% | +3.2% | +8.7% | +4.2% | +39.7% | +1.4% | +1.6% | +5.3% | -3.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $302K | $291K | $284K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $408K | $426K | $479K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$302K to $408K
30.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$284K to $479K
55.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooksville | $342K | $352K | +3.0% | |
| Hernando Beach (Tract 041601) | $328K | $374K | +13.8% | |
| Hernando Beach (Tract 041502) | $341K | $373K | +9.4% | |
| Spring Hill (Tract 040702) | $344K | $367K | +6.8% | |
| Spring Hill (Tract 040908) | $357K | $377K | +5.8% | |
| Brooksville | $333K | $352K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooksville | $342K | $352K | +3.0% | |
| Brooksville (Tract 040602) | $232K | $270K | +16.5% | |
| Brooksville (Tract 040502) | $145K | $166K | +14.8% | |
| Hernando Beach | $328K | $374K | +13.8% | |
| Spring Hill (Tract 041302) | $253K | $285K | +12.5% | |
| Spring Hill (Tract 040910) | $313K | $351K | +12.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooksville | $342K | $352K | $195K | |
| Brooksville (Tract 040501) | $177K | $198K | $104K | |
| Spring Hill | $209K | $234K | $104K | |
| Brookridge | $159K | $173K | $97K | |
| Brooksville (Tract 040502) | $145K | $166K | $73K | |
| Brooksville (Tract 040400) | $55K | $59K | $32K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.