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Leon, FL · ZIP 32304 · Census Tract 12073000600 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$190K
Downside (P10)
$142K
-26% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$207K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$279K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -26% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $102K | $90K | $85K | $94K | $92K | $90K | $119K | $180K | $183K | $190K | $197K | $204K | $207K |
| YoY Change | -11.8% | -5.3% | +10.7% | -2.2% | -2.0% | +32.0% | +51.8% | +1.3% | +4.2% | +3.7% | +3.3% | +1.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $156K | $156K | $142K | ||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $237K | $260K | $279K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$156K to $237K
41.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$142K to $279K
66.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tallahassee | $187K | $207K | +10.3% | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 000904) | $187K | $210K | +12.5% | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 002201) | $194K | $226K | +16.5% | |
| Northwest Leon | $195K | $193K | -1.0% | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 001401) | $185K | $202K | +9.3% | |
| Southeast Leon | $185K | $216K | +16.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tallahassee | $187K | $207K | +10.3% | |
| Northeast Leon (Tract 002420) | $352K | $424K | +20.5% | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 000903) | $245K | $289K | +17.6% | |
| Southeast Leon | $185K | $216K | +16.9% | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 002201) | $194K | $226K | +16.5% | |
| Northeast Leon (Tract 002416) | $563K | $654K | +16.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tallahassee | $187K | $207K | $137K | |
| Southwest Leon | $70K | $78K | $47K | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 001200) | $99K | $103K | $48K | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 002007) | $125K | $130K | $60K | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 002103) | $130K | $142K | $64K | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 002106) | $122K | $139K | $75K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.