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Leon, FL · ZIP 32304 · Census Tract 12073002304 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$153K
Downside (P10)
$137K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$159K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$226K
+48% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $70K | $61K | $59K | $54K | $57K | $68K | $76K | $107K | $129K | $148K | $153K | $155K | $159K | $159K |
| YoY Change | -13.9% | -2.3% | -8.1% | +4.4% | +19.9% | +11.9% | +39.9% | +21.2% | +14.3% | +3.6% | +1.5% | +2.4% | +0.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $143K | $141K | $137K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $181K | $199K | $226K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$143K to $181K
24.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$137K to $226K
55.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Leon | $150K | $159K | +6.5% | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 001102) | $147K | $156K | +5.9% | |
| Tallahassee Southwest | $162K | $168K | +3.5% | |
| Southeast Leon | $163K | $180K | +10.5% | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 000303) | $165K | $177K | +7.2% | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 001002) | $141K | $149K | +6.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Leon | $150K | $159K | +6.5% | |
| Northeast Leon (Tract 002420) | $352K | $424K | +20.5% | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 000903) | $245K | $289K | +17.6% | |
| Southeast Leon | $185K | $216K | +16.9% | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 002201) | $194K | $226K | +16.5% | |
| Northeast Leon (Tract 002416) | $563K | $654K | +16.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Leon | $150K | $159K | $89K | |
| Southwest Leon | $70K | $78K | $47K | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 001200) | $99K | $103K | $48K | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 002007) | $125K | $130K | $60K | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 002103) | $130K | $142K | $64K | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 002106) | $122K | $139K | $75K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.