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Leon, FL · ZIP 32308 · Census Tract 12073002403 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$272K
Downside (P10)
$227K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$295K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$398K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $164K | $160K | $165K | $171K | $173K | $182K | $193K | $211K | $234K | $266K | $272K | $281K | $292K | $295K | $275K |
| YoY Change | -2.4% | +3.4% | +3.6% | +1.0% | +5.1% | +6.3% | +8.8% | +11.0% | +13.9% | +2.3% | +3.2% | +4.0% | +0.9% | -6.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $244K | $233K | $227K | $247K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $340K | $369K | $398K | $311K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$244K to $340K
34.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$247K to $311K
23.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast Leon | $271K | $295K | +8.9% | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 001601) | $267K | $278K | +4.1% | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 000906) | $283K | $301K | +6.5% | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 001500) | $260K | $284K | +9.5% | |
| Northwest Leon | $286K | $300K | +4.9% | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 000907) | $294K | $318K | +8.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast Leon | $271K | $295K | +8.9% | |
| Northeast Leon (Tract 002420) | $352K | $424K | +20.5% | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 000903) | $245K | $289K | +17.6% | |
| Southeast Leon | $185K | $216K | +16.9% | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 002201) | $194K | $226K | +16.5% | |
| Northeast Leon (Tract 002416) | $563K | $654K | +16.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast Leon | $271K | $295K | $171K | |
| Southwest Leon | $70K | $78K | $47K | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 001200) | $99K | $103K | $48K | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 002007) | $125K | $130K | $60K | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 002103) | $130K | $142K | $64K | |
| Tallahassee (Tract 002106) | $122K | $139K | $75K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.