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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Manatee, FL · ZIP 34205 · Census Tract 12081000603 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$209K
Downside (P10)
$169K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$208K
-0% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$289K
+38% by 2030
Base case: -0% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $85K | $85K | $95K | $90K | $90K | $109K | $120K | $120K | $155K | $203K | $209K | $208K | $213K | $208K |
| YoY Change | +0.2% | +11.1% | -5.3% | +0.3% | +20.4% | +10.2% | +0.6% | +28.3% | +31.5% | +2.8% | -0.5% | +2.4% | -2.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $175K | $182K | $169K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $257K | $278K | $289K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$175K to $257K
39.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$169K to $289K
57.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradenton | $205K | $208K | +1.6% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000305) | $215K | $256K | +19.0% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001908) | $200K | $225K | +12.7% | |
| Bayshore Gardens (Tract 000307) | $226K | $254K | +12.1% | |
| West Samoset | $226K | $244K | +8.0% | |
| Bayshore Gardens (Tract 000312) | $213K | $224K | +4.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradenton | $205K | $208K | +1.6% | |
| South Bradenton | $158K | $190K | +20.6% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000305) | $215K | $256K | +19.0% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000403) | $553K | $636K | +15.1% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001802) | $1.17M | $1.34M | +14.8% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001801) | $676K | $774K | +14.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradenton | $205K | $208K | $120K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000105) | $127K | $137K | $67K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000313) | $80K | $85K | $53K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000204) | $89K | $97K | $51K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000203) | $83K | $84K | $49K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.