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Manatee, FL · ZIP 34202 · Census Tract 12081002008 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$542K
Downside (P10)
$459K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$577K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$825K
+52% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +52%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $249K | $249K | $281K | $290K | $317K | $333K | $352K | $417K | $495K | $529K | $542K | $572K | $578K | $577K | $545K |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$293K | -$294K | -$262K | -$253K | -$225K | -$209K | -$191K | -$125K | -$47K | -$14K | +$30K | +$35K | +$34K | +$3K | |
| Growth % vs 2026 | -54.1% | -54.2% | -48.2% | -46.6% | -41.5% | -38.6% | -35.1% | -23.1% | -8.7% | -2.5% | +5.5% | +6.5% | +6.3% | +0.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $481K | $479K | $459K | $491K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $674K | $731K | $825K | $613K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$481K to $674K
33.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$491K to $613K
22.4% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources