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Pasco, FL · ZIP 34691 · Census Tract 12101030404 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$369K
Downside (P10)
$314K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$379K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$493K
+33% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +33%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $171K | $174K | $184K | $197K | $215K | $226K | $234K | $281K | $319K | $369K | $369K | $377K | $387K | $379K | $379K |
| YoY Change | +2.0% | +5.9% | +7.2% | +8.9% | +5.1% | +3.5% | +20.2% | +13.6% | +15.6% | +0.1% | +2.1% | +2.4% | -1.9% | -0.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $324K | $314K | $314K | $339K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $432K | $463K | $493K | $434K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$324K to $432K
28.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$339K to $434K
25.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Port Richey | $376K | $379K | +0.7% | |
| New Port Richey | $374K | $411K | +9.8% | |
| Central Pasco (Tract 032014) | $372K | $407K | +9.4% | |
| Wesley Chapel | $373K | $392K | +5.0% | |
| Central Pasco (Tract 032005) | $372K | $386K | +3.8% | |
| Land O' Lakes | $366K | $378K | +3.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Port Richey | $376K | $379K | +0.7% | |
| Central Pasco | $442K | $545K | +23.2% | |
| Lacoochee | $265K | $312K | +17.9% | |
| Land O' Lakes | $389K | $455K | +17.1% | |
| New Port Richey | $448K | $521K | +16.4% | |
| Dade City | $230K | $266K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Port Richey | $376K | $379K | $179K | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033014) | $73K | $80K | $45K | |
| Dade City | $73K | $79K | $42K | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033101) | $76K | $80K | $41K | |
| Bayonet Point | $119K | $123K | $39K | |
| Port Richey | $65K | $73K | $36K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.