Sarasota, FL · ZIP 34240 · Census Tract 12115001405 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$851K
Downside (P10)
$648K
-24% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$881K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.22M
+43% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -24% to +43%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar Sarasota markets.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $500K | $548K | $644K | $745K | $857K | $851K | $874K | $877K | $881K |
| YoY Change | +9.7% | +17.4% | +15.8% | +15.1% | -0.7% | +2.6% | +0.4% | +0.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $689K | $693K | $648K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.2M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$689K to $1.02M
38.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$648K to $1.22M
64.6% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources