What is the home price forecast for Parcel 12115002013 in Sarasota?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $531,492 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 3.7%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 12115002013 in Sarasota?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $531,492 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 3.7%.

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Parcel 12115002013 (Sarasota) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 12115002013, Sarasota Home Price Forecast

Sarasota, FL · ZIP 34238 · Census Tract 12115002013 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$531K

Downside (P10)

$456K

-14% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$551K

+4% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$727K

+37% by 2030

Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$344K	$412K	$437K	$522K	$534K	$531K	$538K	$536K	$551K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$187,092	-$119,492	-$94,392	-$9,192	+$2,708		+$6,546	+$4,755	+$19,641
Growth % vs 2026	-35.2%	-22.5%	-17.8%	-1.7%	+0.5%		+1.2%	+0.9%	+3.7%
Downside (P10)							$455K	$456K	$456K
Upside (P90)							$627K	$666K	$727K

Forecast Confidence

73%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.

Near-term band

$455K to $627K

31.8% of median

Long-horizon band

$456K to $727K

49.1% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +3.7% · Spread: 49%

·The forecast implies relatively stable values through the full horizon, with modest movements in either direction.
·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 12115002013, Sarasota on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).