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Hawaii, HI · ZIP 96749 · Census Tract 15001021015 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$462K
Downside (P10)
$359K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$518K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$805K
+74% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +74%. The model forecasts this with 53% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $281K | $299K | $412K | $386K | $448K | $462K | $475K | $491K | $518K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$181,167 | -$163,867 | -$50,767 | -$76,067 | -$14,467 | +$12,835 | +$28,070 | +$55,793 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.2% | -35.4% | -11.0% | -16.4% | -3.1% | +2.8% | +6.1% | +12.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $399K | $379K | $359K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $608K | $665K | $805K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$399K to $608K
44.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$359K to $805K
86.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaiian Paradise Park | $458K | $518K | +13.1% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020801) | $471K | $527K | +11.8% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020300) | $482K | $530K | +9.9% | |
| Paauhau-Paauilo | $489K | $529K | +8.2% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020701) | $476K | $507K | +6.4% | |
| Hawaiian Paradise Park | $452K | $467K | +3.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaiian Paradise Park | $458K | $518K | +13.1% | |
| South Kohala | $697K | $814K | +16.7% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020802) | $510K | $575K | +12.7% | |
| Keaau-Mountain View | $302K | $340K | +12.5% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020500) | $491K | $551K | +12.3% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020801) | $471K | $527K | +11.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaiian Paradise Park | $458K | $518K | $447K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021101) | $329K | $332K | $193K | |
| Keaau-Mountain View | $250K | $259K | $171K | |
| Kau | $308K | $336K | $165K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021108) | $288K | $303K | $156K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021107) | $250K | $276K | $144K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Hawaii, HI · ZIP 96749 · Census Tract 15001021015 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$462K
Downside (P10)
$359K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$518K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$805K
+74% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +74%. The model forecasts this with 53% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $281K | $299K | $412K | $386K | $448K | $462K | $475K | $491K | $518K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$181,167 | -$163,867 | -$50,767 | -$76,067 | -$14,467 | +$12,835 | +$28,070 | +$55,793 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.2% | -35.4% | -11.0% | -16.4% | -3.1% | +2.8% | +6.1% | +12.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $399K | $379K | $359K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $608K | $665K | $805K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$399K to $608K
44.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$359K to $805K
86.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaiian Paradise Park | $458K | $518K | +13.1% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020801) | $471K | $527K | +11.8% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020300) | $482K | $530K | +9.9% | |
| Paauhau-Paauilo | $489K | $529K | +8.2% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020701) | $476K | $507K | +6.4% | |
| Hawaiian Paradise Park | $452K | $467K | +3.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaiian Paradise Park | $458K | $518K | +13.1% | |
| South Kohala | $697K | $814K | +16.7% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020802) | $510K | $575K | +12.7% | |
| Keaau-Mountain View | $302K | $340K | +12.5% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020500) | $491K | $551K | +12.3% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020801) | $471K | $527K | +11.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaiian Paradise Park | $458K | $518K | $447K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021101) | $329K | $332K | $193K | |
| Keaau-Mountain View | $250K | $259K | $171K | |
| Kau | $308K | $336K | $165K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021108) | $288K | $303K | $156K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021107) | $250K | $276K | $144K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
