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Honolulu, HI · ZIP 96744 · Census Tract 15003010303 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.17M
Downside (P10)
$973K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.27M
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.72M
+47% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $682K | $724K | $798K | $861K | $892K | $914K | $943K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.2M |
| YoY Change | +6.2% | +10.2% | +7.8% | +3.7% | +2.4% | +3.2% | +9.4% | +7.0% | +1.5% | +4.0% | +1.1% | +3.3% | +4.2% | -7.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $990K | $967K | $973K | $1.0M | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.7M | $1.3M |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$990K to $1.49M
42.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.02M to $1.31M
24.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koolaupoko | $1.14M | $1.27M | +11.4% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 004401) | $1.17M | $1.26M | +8.2% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 004802) | $1.17M | $1.33M | +14.0% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 006806) | $1.17M | $1.28M | +9.7% | |
| Koolaupoko | $1.17M | $1.31M | +11.9% | |
| East Honolulu | $1.16M | $1.31M | +13.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koolaupoko | $1.14M | $1.27M | +11.4% | |
| Waipahu | $379K | $464K | +22.4% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 002403) | $448K | $549K | +22.4% | |
| Koolauloa | $961K | $1.17M | +21.6% | |
| Koolaupoko | $776K | $939K | +21.1% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 003412) | $496K | $598K | +20.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koolaupoko | $1.14M | $1.27M | $744K | |
| Nanakuli | $245K | $269K | $160K | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 005900) | $425K | $440K | $176K | |
| Waianae | $314K | $337K | $190K | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 003605) | $337K | $378K | $193K | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 003408) | $400K | $437K | $204K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.