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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Honolulu, HI · ZIP 96786 · Census Tract 15003009203 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$819K
Downside (P10)
$690K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$876K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.15M
+41% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $536K | $483K | $602K | $717K | $782K | $819K | $817K | $840K | $876K |
| YoY Change | -9.9% | +24.6% | +19.2% | +9.0% | +4.7% | -0.1% | +2.8% | +4.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $716K | $732K | $690K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $960K | $1.1M | $1.2M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$716K to $960K
29.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$690K to $1.15M
53.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wahiawa · 96786 · (Tract 92.3) | $791K | $876K | +10.8% | |
| Wahiawa (Tract 009201) | $815K | $900K | +10.5% | |
| Wahiawa (Tract 009100) | $825K | $896K | +8.7% | |
| Ocean Pointe | $817K | $871K | +6.5% | |
| Koolaupoko | $824K | $875K | +6.1% | |
| Urban Honolulu | $816K | $838K | +2.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wahiawa · 96786 · (Tract 92.3) | $791K | $876K | +10.8% | |
| Waipahu | $379K | $464K | +22.4% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 002403) | $448K | $549K | +22.4% | |
| Koolauloa | $961K | $1.17M | +21.6% | |
| Koolaupoko | $776K | $939K | +21.1% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 003412) | $496K | $598K | +20.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wahiawa · 96786 · (Tract 92.3) | $791K | $876K | $464K | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 003408) | $400K | $437K | $204K | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 003605) | $337K | $378K | $193K | |
| Waianae | $314K | $337K | $190K | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 005900) | $425K | $440K | $176K | |
| Nanakuli | $245K | $269K | $160K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.