What is the home price forecast for Parcel 15009031504 in Lahaina?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $1,158,305 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 3.9%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 15009031504 in Lahaina?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $1,158,305 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 3.9%.

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Parcel 15009031504 (Lahaina) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 15009031504, Lahaina Home Price Forecast

Maui, HI · ZIP 96761 · Census Tract 15009031504 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$1.16M

Downside (P10)

$935K

-19% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$1.20M

+4% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$1.64M

+42% by 2030

Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$781K	$852K	$1.1M	$1.2M	$1.2M	$1.2M	$1.2M
Growth $ vs 2026	-$377,405	-$306,205	-$28,305		+$13,981	+$62,165	+$44,641
Growth % vs 2026	-32.6%	-26.4%	-2.4%		+1.2%	+5.4%	+3.9%
Downside (P10)					$994K	$963K	$935K
Upside (P90)					$1.4M	$1.6M	$1.6M

Forecast Confidence

68%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.

Near-term band

$994K to $1.4M

37.1% of median

Long-horizon band

$935K to $1.6M

58.6% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +3.9% · Spread: 59%

·The forecast implies relatively stable values through the full horizon, with modest movements in either direction.
·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 15009031504, Lahaina on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).