What is the home price forecast for Parcel 15009031505 in Lahaina?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $1,196,554 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 10.7%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 15009031505 in Lahaina?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $1,196,554 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 10.7%.

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Parcel 15009031505 (Lahaina) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 15009031505, Lahaina Home Price Forecast

Maui, HI · ZIP 96761 · Census Tract 15009031505 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$1.20M

Downside (P10)

$1.00M

-16% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$1.32M

+11% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$1.84M

+53% by 2030

Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +53%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$778K	$850K	$988K	$1.0M	$1.1M	$1.2M	$1.2M	$1.3M	$1.3M
Growth $ vs 2026	-$418,754	-$346,554	-$208,854	-$182,354	-$88,954		+$28,202	+$96,282	+$127,685
Growth % vs 2026	-35.0%	-29.0%	-17.5%	-15.2%	-7.4%		+2.4%	+8.0%	+10.7%
Downside (P10)							$1.1M	$1.1M	$1.0M
Upside (P90)							$1.5M	$1.6M	$1.8M

Forecast Confidence

65%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.

Near-term band

$1.1M to $1.5M

32.1% of median

Long-horizon band

$1.0M to $1.8M

63.2% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +10.7% · Spread: 63%

·The forecast implies steady near-term growth accelerating over the longer horizon.
·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.

Location

Parcel 15009031505, Lahaina on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).