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Black Hawk, IA · ZIP 50613 · Census Tract 19013002301 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$212K
Downside (P10)
$175K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$223K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$270K
+28% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +28%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $137K | $139K | $152K | $156K | $164K | $166K | $168K | $189K | $188K | $207K | $212K | $210K | $214K | $223K |
| YoY Change | +1.5% | +9.7% | +2.2% | +5.2% | +1.0% | +1.2% | +12.5% | -0.1% | +10.0% | +2.1% | -0.7% | +1.8% | +4.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $173K | $181K | $175K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $237K | $274K | $270K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$173K to $237K
30.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$175K to $270K
42.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Falls · 50613 · (Tract 23.1) | $211K | $223K | +5.5% | |
| Waterloo (Tract 001400) | $205K | $235K | +15.0% | |
| Mount Vernon area | $221K | $244K | +10.4% | |
| Waterloo (Tract 001301) | $199K | $216K | +8.9% | |
| Waterloo (Tract 001501) | $206K | $222K | +7.5% | |
| Waterloo (Tract 000900) | $217K | $233K | +7.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Falls · 50613 · (Tract 23.1) | $211K | $223K | +5.5% | |
| Barclay area | $262K | $310K | +18.4% | |
| Cedar Falls (Tract 002601) | $307K | $357K | +16.5% | |
| Cedar Falls (Tract 002400) | $228K | $264K | +15.7% | |
| Waterloo | $205K | $235K | +15.0% | |
| Cedar Falls area | $401K | $460K | +14.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Falls · 50613 · (Tract 23.1) | $211K | $223K | $95K | |
| Waterloo (Tract 001800) | $76K | $83K | $46K | |
| Waterloo (Tract 000500) | $83K | $91K | $46K | |
| Waterloo (Tract 000800) | $87K | $93K | $44K | |
| Waterloo (Tract 000700) | $83K | $85K | $42K | |
| Waterloo (Tract 001701) | $67K | $72K | $29K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.