What is the home price forecast for Bear Lake?

Homecastr forecasts Bear Lake median home values at $4,144,948 currently, with a 5-year expected change of -21.8%.

How confident is the Bear Lake forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $2,169,311 (downside) to $4,225,089 (upside), with a spread of 63% of median.

Bear Lake Home Price Forecast

Bear Lake, ID · Census Tract 16007280008 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$4.14M

Downside (P10)

$2.17M

-48% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$3.24M

-22% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$4.23M

+2% by 2030

Base case: -22% by 2030, with a forecast range from -48% to +2%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar Bear Lake markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$4.1M	$4.1M	$3.6M	$3.3M	$3.2M
YoY Change		-1.1%	-11.7%	-8.8%	-1.8%
Downside (P10)		$2.8M	$2.4M	$2.2M	$2.2M
Upside (P90)		$4.7M	$4.4M	$4.1M	$4.2M

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.

1-Year Spread

$3.06M to $4.57M

36.6% of median

5-Year Spread

$2.17M to $4.23M

63.4% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: significant decline expected5yr expected: -21.8% · Spread: 63%

·The downside reflects broader macro sensitivity and local demand softening.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Bear Lake	$3.89M	$3.06M	-21.3%
Bear Lake	$4.48M	$2.86M	-36.2%
Bear Lake	$4.74M	$3.14M	-33.7%
Bear Lake	$2.83M	$2.14M	-24.3%
Bear Lake	$2.20M	$1.52M	-31.0%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Bear Lake	$3.89M	$3.06M	-21.3%
Bear Lake	$1.73M	$1.35M	-22.1%
Bear Lake	$2.83M	$2.14M	-24.3%
Bear Lake	$2.20M	$1.52M	-31.0%
Bear Lake	$4.74M	$3.14M	-33.7%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Bear Lake	$2.20M	$1.52M	$1.28M
Bear Lake	$3.89M	$3.06M	$1.31M
Bear Lake	$1.73M	$1.35M	$1.32M
Bear Lake	$2.83M	$2.14M	$1.37M
Bear Lake	$4.48M	$2.86M	$1.73M

Location

Bear Lake on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).