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St. Joseph, IN · ZIP 46544 · Census Tract 18141010300 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$180K
Downside (P10)
$157K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$205K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$265K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $106K | $104K | $104K | $106K | $109K | $110K | $114K | $132K | $147K | $179K | $180K | $186K | $196K | $205K | $188K |
| YoY Change | -2.4% | +0.5% | +1.4% | +2.6% | +1.4% | +3.2% | +16.0% | +11.5% | +22.1% | +0.4% | +3.0% | +5.6% | +4.5% | -7.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $154K | $157K | $157K | $166K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $241K | $252K | $265K | $212K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$154K to $241K
47.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$166K to $212K
24.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mishawaka | $182K | $205K | +12.7% | |
| South Bend | $178K | $203K | +14.3% | |
| Clay (Tract 011309) | $180K | $206K | +14.2% | |
| Penn (Tract 010500) | $183K | $202K | +10.2% | |
| Clay (Tract 011303) | $184K | $197K | +7.4% | |
| Penn (Tract 011506) | $179K | $192K | +7.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mishawaka | $182K | $205K | +12.7% | |
| Centre (Tract 011801) | $239K | $284K | +19.0% | |
| South Bend (Tract 001000) | $288K | $334K | +16.2% | |
| Centre (Tract 011804) | $219K | $254K | +15.9% | |
| South Bend (Tract 001400) | $122K | $140K | +14.7% | |
| Union | $246K | $282K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mishawaka | $182K | $205K | $108K | |
| South Bend (Tract 003400) | $66K | $68K | $45K | |
| South Bend (Tract 003100) | $83K | $92K | $45K | |
| South Bend (Tract 002300) | $53K | $58K | $39K | |
| South Bend (Tract 002400) | $61K | $63K | $30K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.