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St. Joseph, IN · ZIP 46530 · Census Tract 18141011403 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$413K
Downside (P10)
$351K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$464K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$639K
+55% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +55%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $238K | $247K | $263K | $265K | $277K | $274K | $283K | $366K | $410K | $412K | $413K | $427K | $436K | $464K | $427K |
| YoY Change | +4.0% | +6.3% | +0.7% | +4.8% | -1.1% | +3.4% | +29.3% | +11.8% | +0.5% | +0.4% | +3.5% | +2.0% | +6.6% | -8.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $367K | $351K | $351K | $376K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $512K | $575K | $639K | $485K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$367K to $512K
33.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$376K to $485K
25.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris | $412K | $464K | +12.7% | |
| Granger (Tract 011404) | $432K | $429K | -0.8% | |
| Granger (Tract 011304) | $338K | $385K | +13.8% | |
| Granger (Tract 011405) | $327K | $362K | +10.8% | |
| Penn | $316K | $337K | +6.6% | |
| Granger (Tract 011406) | $311K | $320K | +2.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris | $412K | $464K | +12.7% | |
| Centre (Tract 011801) | $239K | $284K | +19.0% | |
| South Bend (Tract 001000) | $288K | $334K | +16.2% | |
| Centre (Tract 011804) | $219K | $254K | +15.9% | |
| South Bend (Tract 001400) | $122K | $140K | +14.7% | |
| Union | $246K | $282K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris | $412K | $464K | $288K | |
| South Bend (Tract 002400) | $61K | $63K | $30K | |
| South Bend (Tract 002300) | $53K | $58K | $39K | |
| South Bend (Tract 003100) | $83K | $92K | $45K | |
| South Bend (Tract 003400) | $66K | $68K | $45K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.