What is the home price forecast for Tract 400009?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 400009 median home values at $3,263,509 currently, with a 5-year expected change of -33.5%.

How confident is the Tract 400009 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $1,547,875 (downside) to $2,643,224 (upside), with a spread of 50% of median.

Tract 400009 Home Price Forecast

County 20762, KS · Census Tract 20762400009 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$3.26M

Downside (P10)

$1.55M

-53% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$2.17M

-34% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$2.64M

-19% by 2030

Base case: -34% by 2030, with a forecast range from -53% to -19%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 20762 markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$3.3M	$3.2M	$2.7M	$2.3M	$2.2M
YoY Change		-0.7%	-15.8%	-17.1%	-4.2%
Downside (P10)		$2.5M	$2.1M	$1.7M	$1.5M
Upside (P90)		$3.6M	$3.2M	$2.7M	$2.6M

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.

1-Year Spread

$2.78M to $3.55M

23.8% of median

5-Year Spread

$1.55M to $2.64M

50.5% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: significant decline expected5yr expected: -33.5% · Spread: 50%

·The downside reflects broader macro sensitivity and local demand softening.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 000001	$1.54M	$1.17M	-23.8%
Tract 600003	$956K	$849K	-11.2%
Tract 280009	$15.54M	$8.56M	-44.9%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 600003	$956K	$849K	-11.2%
Tract 000001	$1.54M	$1.17M	-23.8%
Tract 280009	$15.54M	$8.56M	-44.9%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Tract 600003	$956K	$849K	$866K
Tract 000001	$1.54M	$1.17M	$885K
Tract 280009	$15.54M	$8.56M	$4.13M

Location

Tract 400009 on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).