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Lyon, KS · ZIP 66801 · Census Tract 20111000201 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$176K
Downside (P10)
$160K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$186K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$240K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $134K | $149K | $169K | $168K | $170K | $176K | $181K | $189K | $186K |
| YoY Change | +11.4% | +13.3% | -0.5% | +1.0% | +3.8% | +2.7% | +4.4% | -1.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $161K | $166K | $160K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $214K | $240K | $240K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$161K to $214K
29.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$160K to $240K
43.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emporia | $174K | $186K | +6.7% | |
| Emporia (Tract 000103) | $166K | $191K | +15.1% | |
| Emporia (Tract 000203) | $163K | $184K | +12.6% | |
| Elmendaro area | $195K | $213K | +9.2% | |
| Emporia (Tract 000400) | $160K | $166K | +4.0% | |
| Ivy area | $209K | $217K | +3.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emporia | $174K | $186K | +6.7% | |
| Emporia (Tract 000500) | $73K | $85K | +15.7% | |
| Emporia (Tract 000103) | $166K | $191K | +15.1% | |
| Emporia (Tract 000203) | $163K | $184K | +12.6% | |
| Americus area | $233K | $256K | +9.8% | |
| Elmendaro area | $195K | $213K | +9.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emporia | $174K | $186K | $80K | |
| Emporia (Tract 000203) | $163K | $184K | $110K | |
| Emporia (Tract 000400) | $160K | $166K | $93K | |
| Emporia (Tract 000101) | $102K | $109K | $64K | |
| Emporia area | $104K | $110K | $59K | |
| Emporia (Tract 000500) | $73K | $85K | $36K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.