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Shawnee, KS · ZIP 66533 · Census Tract 20177003500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$261K
Downside (P10)
$211K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$278K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$402K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $152K | $164K | $162K | $167K | $181K | $188K | $184K | $220K | $240K | $254K | $261K | $269K | $278K | $278K | $264K |
| YoY Change | +7.6% | -0.7% | +3.0% | +8.3% | +4.0% | -2.3% | +19.4% | +9.2% | +5.7% | +3.0% | +3.1% | +3.2% | +0.1% | -5.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $232K | $214K | $211K | $237K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $325K | $344K | $402K | $298K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$232K to $325K
34.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$237K to $298K
23.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grove area | $257K | $278K | +8.3% | |
| Topeka (Tract 002402) | $254K | $294K | +15.8% | |
| Soldier (Tract 003302) | $267K | $303K | +13.4% | |
| Topeka (Tract 003606) | $247K | $280K | +13.3% | |
| Soldier (Tract 003401) | $243K | $269K | +10.8% | |
| Dover area | $266K | $277K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grove area | $257K | $278K | +8.3% | |
| Topeka (Tract 002402) | $254K | $294K | +15.8% | |
| Topeka (Tract 000600) | $88K | $101K | +15.0% | |
| Topeka (Tract 001604) | $214K | $246K | +14.7% | |
| Soldier | $267K | $303K | +13.4% | |
| Topeka (Tract 001500) | $96K | $109K | +13.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grove area | $257K | $278K | $191K | |
| Topeka (Tract 001200) | $65K | $72K | $33K | |
| Topeka (Tract 002900) | $57K | $62K | $33K | |
| Topeka (Tract 000400) | $54K | $56K | $29K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.