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Fayette, KY · ZIP 40517 · Census Tract 21067004001 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$172K
Downside (P10)
$145K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$189K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$254K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $100K | $98K | $98K | $102K | $109K | $111K | $118K | $138K | $145K | $171K | $172K | $181K | $190K | $189K |
| YoY Change | -2.3% | +0.5% | +3.8% | +7.4% | +2.0% | +6.0% | +17.1% | +4.9% | +17.6% | +0.9% | +5.2% | +5.2% | -0.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $150K | $150K | $145K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $222K | $234K | $254K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$150K to $222K
40.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$145K to $254K
57.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington-Fayette · Lexington · (Tract 40.1) | $172K | $189K | +10.2% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 001400) | $174K | $200K | +15.1% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 001300) | $169K | $189K | +12.1% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 003201) | $174K | $191K | +9.9% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 003101) | $175K | $188K | +7.2% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 000400) | $173K | $184K | +6.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington-Fayette · Lexington · (Tract 40.1) | $172K | $189K | +10.2% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 003914) | $308K | $365K | +18.4% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 004103) | $285K | $337K | +18.1% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 004005) | $464K | $546K | +17.5% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 002400) | $457K | $528K | +15.6% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 003908) | $378K | $436K | +15.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington-Fayette · Lexington · (Tract 40.1) | $172K | $189K | $109K | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 000300) | $184K | $201K | $73K | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 002001) | $117K | $126K | $71K | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 001000) | $132K | $135K | $69K | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 001800) | $158K | $177K | $68K | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 001100) | $85K | $91K | $42K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.