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Fayette, KY · ZIP 40509 · Census Tract 21067003916 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$747K
Downside (P10)
$653K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$854K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.03M
+38% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $422K | $448K | $432K | $470K | $504K | $517K | $541K | $646K | $709K | $724K | $747K | $773K | $818K | $854K |
| YoY Change | +6.0% | -3.7% | +9.0% | +7.2% | +2.4% | +4.8% | +19.3% | +9.8% | +2.1% | +3.1% | +3.5% | +5.9% | +4.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $661K | $650K | $653K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $884K | $935K | $1.0M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$661K to $884K
28.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$653K to $1.03M
44.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington-Fayette | $750K | $854K | +14.0% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 003701) | $796K | $916K | +15.1% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 002304) | $848K | $956K | +12.6% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 004006) | $591K | $660K | +11.6% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 004007) | $755K | $836K | +10.8% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 000600) | $604K | $661K | +9.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington-Fayette | $750K | $854K | +14.0% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 003914) | $308K | $365K | +18.4% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 004103) | $285K | $337K | +18.1% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 004005) | $464K | $546K | +17.5% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 002400) | $457K | $528K | +15.6% | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 003908) | $378K | $436K | +15.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington-Fayette | $750K | $854K | $376K | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 000300) | $184K | $201K | $73K | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 002001) | $117K | $126K | $71K | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 001000) | $132K | $135K | $69K | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 001800) | $158K | $177K | $68K | |
| Lexington-Fayette (Tract 001100) | $85K | $91K | $42K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.