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Hardin, KY · ZIP 40160 · Census Tract 21093000600 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$137K
Downside (P10)
$128K
-7% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$150K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$184K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -7% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 79% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $113K | $119K | $119K | $120K | $130K | $126K | $115K | $129K | $137K | $135K | $137K | $139K | $146K | $150K |
| YoY Change | +5.7% | +0.3% | +0.5% | +8.1% | -2.9% | -8.4% | +11.8% | +6.6% | -1.5% | +1.6% | +1.4% | +4.6% | +3.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $123K | $128K | $128K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $153K | $164K | $184K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$123K to $153K
21.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$128K to $184K
37.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radcliff | $136K | $150K | +10.2% | |
| Radcliff (Tract 000700) | $154K | $167K | +8.6% | |
| Radcliff (Tract 000500) | $155K | $160K | +3.2% | |
| Elizabethtown | $165K | $173K | +5.4% | |
| Radcliff (Tract 000400) | $171K | $194K | +13.6% | |
| West Point | $95K | $101K | +5.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radcliff | $136K | $150K | +10.2% | |
| Radcliff | $171K | $194K | +13.6% | |
| Elizabethtown (Tract 001200) | $278K | $313K | +12.7% | |
| Elizabethtown (Tract 001100) | $256K | $285K | +11.2% | |
| Elizabethtown (Tract 001004) | $227K | $249K | +9.7% | |
| Elizabethtown (Tract 001601) | $251K | $276K | +9.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radcliff | $136K | $150K | $56K | |
| West Point | $95K | $101K | $52K | |
| Radcliff (Tract 000500) | $155K | $160K | $76K | |
| Radcliff (Tract 000700) | $154K | $167K | $87K | |
| Elizabethtown | $165K | $173K | $87K | |
| Radcliff (Tract 000902) | $194K | $206K | $88K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.