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Jefferson, KY · ZIP 40222 · Census Tract 21111010004 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$282K
Downside (P10)
$238K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$305K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$440K
+56% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +56%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $158K | $153K | $154K | $145K | $132K | $137K | $146K | $176K | $194K | $273K | $282K | $293K | $309K | $305K | $285K |
| YoY Change | -3.3% | +0.4% | -5.9% | -8.6% | +4.0% | +6.3% | +20.4% | +10.2% | +40.9% | +3.2% | +4.0% | +5.5% | -1.4% | -6.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $256K | $247K | $238K | $252K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $347K | $374K | $440K | $316K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$256K to $347K
31.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$252K to $316K
22.4% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources