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Jefferson, KY · ZIP 40214 · Census Tract 21111009103 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$146K
Downside (P10)
$124K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$174K
+19% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$211K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +19% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $89K | $87K | $90K | $93K | $92K | $92K | $98K | $117K | $126K | $140K | $146K | $151K | $162K | $174K | $144K |
| YoY Change | -2.7% | +3.1% | +4.4% | -1.3% | -0.2% | +6.1% | +20.0% | +7.7% | +10.8% | +4.3% | +3.8% | +7.1% | +7.2% | -16.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $126K | $122K | $124K | $129K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $179K | $198K | $211K | $164K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$126K to $179K
35.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$129K to $164K
24.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pond Creek | $141K | $174K | +23.1% | |
| Louisville | $147K | $166K | +13.2% | |
| Southeast Jefferson | $145K | $164K | +12.8% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) (Tract 011404) | $146K | $162K | +11.0% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) (Tract 011904) | $146K | $160K | +9.7% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) (Tract 012701) | $143K | $151K | +5.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pond Creek | $141K | $174K | +23.1% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $149K | $181K | +21.3% | |
| Southeast Jefferson | $341K | $409K | +19.9% | |
| Louisville South | $162K | $192K | +18.5% | |
| Louisville (Tract 008100) | $249K | $292K | +17.1% | |
| Louisville (Tract 006900) | $245K | $286K | +16.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pond Creek | $141K | $174K | $87K | |
| Louisville (Tract 000600) | $63K | $67K | $37K | |
| Louisville (Tract 001800) | $68K | $76K | $35K | |
| Louisville (Tract 002100) | $53K | $57K | $33K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.