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Shelby, KY · Census Tract 21211000001 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$346K
Downside (P10)
$254K
-27% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$461K
+33% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$768K
+122% by 2030
Base case: +33% by 2030, with a forecast range from -27% to +122%. The model forecasts this with 39% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $346K | $379K | $389K | $404K | $461K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$32,550 | +$42,685 | +$58,071 | +$114,811 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +9.4% | +12.3% | +16.8% | +33.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $282K | $245K | $252K | $254K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $536K | $638K | $708K | $768K |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$282K to $536K
66.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$254K to $768K
111.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000001 | $346K | $461K | +33.2% | |
| Shelbyville (Tract 040402) | $364K | $410K | +12.5% | |
| Simpsonville | $303K | $327K | +7.8% | |
| Shelbyville (Tract 040202) | $321K | $345K | +7.6% | |
| Christianburg | $358K | $374K | +4.3% | |
| Harrisonville | $322K | $324K | +0.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000001 | $346K | $461K | +33.2% | |
| Simpsonville (Tract 040501) | $657K | $756K | +15.1% | |
| Shelbyville (Tract 040402) | $364K | $410K | +12.5% | |
| Shelbyville (Tract 040403) | $228K | $246K | +7.9% | |
| Simpsonville (Tract 040503) | $303K | $327K | +7.8% | |
| Shelbyville (Tract 040202) | $321K | $345K | +7.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000001 | $346K | $461K | $514K | |
| Shelbyville (Tract 040301) | $223K | $240K | $144K | |
| Shelbyville (Tract 040403) | $228K | $246K | $143K | |
| Shelbyville (Tract 040302) | $235K | $250K | $130K | |
| Simpsonville | $504K | $511K | $126K | |
| Shelbyville (Tract 040201) | $281K | $285K | $63K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Shelby, KY · Census Tract 21211000001 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$346K
Downside (P10)
$254K
-27% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$461K
+33% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$768K
+122% by 2030
Base case: +33% by 2030, with a forecast range from -27% to +122%. The model forecasts this with 39% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $346K | $379K | $389K | $404K | $461K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$32,550 | +$42,685 | +$58,071 | +$114,811 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +9.4% | +12.3% | +16.8% | +33.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $282K | $245K | $252K | $254K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $536K | $638K | $708K | $768K |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$282K to $536K
66.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$254K to $768K
111.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000001 | $346K | $461K | +33.2% | |
| Shelbyville (Tract 040402) | $364K | $410K | +12.5% | |
| Simpsonville | $303K | $327K | +7.8% | |
| Shelbyville (Tract 040202) | $321K | $345K | +7.6% | |
| Christianburg | $358K | $374K | +4.3% | |
| Harrisonville | $322K | $324K | +0.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000001 | $346K | $461K | +33.2% | |
| Simpsonville (Tract 040501) | $657K | $756K | +15.1% | |
| Shelbyville (Tract 040402) | $364K | $410K | +12.5% | |
| Shelbyville (Tract 040403) | $228K | $246K | +7.9% | |
| Simpsonville (Tract 040503) | $303K | $327K | +7.8% | |
| Shelbyville (Tract 040202) | $321K | $345K | +7.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000001 | $346K | $461K | $514K | |
| Shelbyville (Tract 040301) | $223K | $240K | $144K | |
| Shelbyville (Tract 040403) | $228K | $246K | $143K | |
| Shelbyville (Tract 040302) | $235K | $250K | $130K | |
| Simpsonville | $504K | $511K | $126K | |
| Shelbyville (Tract 040201) | $281K | $285K | $63K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
