What is the home price forecast for Tract 012421?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 012421 median home values at $642,508 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 24.1%.

How confident is the Tract 012421 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $633,069 (downside) to $1,076,100 (upside), with a spread of 56% of median.

Tract 012421 Home Price Forecast

County 22435, LA · Census Tract 22435012421 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$643K

Downside (P10)

$633K

-1% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$797K

+24% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$1.08M

+67% by 2030

Base case: +24% by 2030, with a forecast range from -1% to +67%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 22435 markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$643K	$672K	$712K	$773K	$797K
YoY Change		+4.6%	+6.0%	+8.5%	+3.2%
Downside (P10)		$595K	$598K	$629K	$633K
Upside (P90)		$771K	$882K	$983K	$1.1M

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.

1-Year Spread

$596K to $719K

19.1% of median

5-Year Spread

$633K to $1.08M

55.6% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +24.1% · Spread: 56%

·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 015787	$645K	$718K	+11.3%
Tract 016126	$645K	$751K	+16.3%
Tract 015020	$637K	$761K	+19.6%
Tract 302021	$636K	$852K	+34.0%
Tract 150820	$635K	$930K	+46.5%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 150202	$789K	$1.31M	+66.4%
Tract 003744	$510K	$833K	+63.2%
Tract 003469	$499K	$812K	+62.7%
Tract 151366	$763K	$1.24M	+62.6%
Tract 004468	$434K	$703K	+62.1%

Location

Tract 012421 on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).