County 22501, LA · Census Tract 22501253156 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.30M
Downside (P10)
$532K
-59% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$961K
-26% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.53M
+17% by 2030
Base case: -26% by 2030, with a forecast range from -59% to +17%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 22501 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.1M | $969K | $961K |
| YoY Change | -2.7% | -13.4% | -11.7% | -0.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $794K | $616K | $526K | $532K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.7M | $1.6M | $1.5M | $1.5M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$964K to $1.60M
48.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$532K to $1.53M
103.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 500252 | $1.26M | $1.04M | -17.4% |
| Tract 252856 | $1.24M | $983K | -20.8% |
| Tract 251352 | $1.37M | $1.52M | +10.8% |
| Tract 253059 | $1.38M | $964K | -30.1% |
| Tract 251857 | $1.18M | $1.00M | -15.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 251352 | $1.37M | $1.52M | +10.8% |
| Tract 252665 | $1.61M | $1.44M | -10.2% |
| Tract 251857 | $1.18M | $1.00M | -15.1% |
| Tract 501109 | $1.93M | $1.63M | -15.7% |
| Tract 500252 | $1.26M | $1.04M | -17.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 252665 | $1.61M | $1.44M | $896K |
| Tract 251352 | $1.37M | $1.52M | $952K |
| Tract 255950 | $2.21M | $1.59M | $1.02M |
| Tract 253059 | $1.38M | $964K | $1.02M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources