What is the home price forecast for Tract 000800?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 000800 median home values at $485,016 currently, with a 5-year expected change of -3.7%.

How confident is the Tract 000800 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $268,771 (downside) to $828,451 (upside), with a spread of 120% of median.

Tract 000800 Home Price Forecast

County 25450, MA · Census Tract 25450000800 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$485K

Downside (P10)

$269K

-45% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$467K

-4% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$828K

+71% by 2030

Base case: -4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -45% to +71%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 25450 markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$485K	$485K	$466K	$468K	$467K
YoY Change		+0.1%	-4.0%	+0.5%	-0.3%
Downside (P10)		$308K	$272K	$250K	$269K
Upside (P90)		$667K	$767K	$814K	$828K

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.

1-Year Spread

$365K to $642K

57.2% of median

5-Year Spread

$269K to $828K

119.8% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: mild decline expected5yr expected: -3.7% · Spread: 120%

·The forecast implies relatively stable values through the full horizon, with modest movements in either direction.
·The model sees some downside pressure from rate sensitivity and local supply dynamics.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 000208	$486K	$535K	+10.1%
Tract 000347	$489K	$519K	+6.0%
Tract 000363	$518K	$497K	-4.1%
Tract 000240	$450K	$460K	+2.0%
Tract 000826	$446K	$469K	+5.1%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 000208	$486K	$535K	+10.1%
Tract 000347	$489K	$519K	+6.0%
Tract 000826	$446K	$469K	+5.1%
Tract 000402	$439K	$456K	+3.9%
Tract 000240	$450K	$460K	+2.0%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Tract 000402	$439K	$456K	$502K
Tract 000240	$450K	$460K	$549K

Location

Tract 000800 on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).