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Essex, MA · ZIP 01913 · Census Tract 25009266200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$510K
Downside (P10)
$375K
-26% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$521K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$699K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -26% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $314K | $309K | $303K | $285K | $308K | $327K | $358K | $422K | $457K | $499K | $510K | $511K | $506K | $521K | $523K |
| YoY Change | -1.6% | -2.1% | -5.8% | +7.8% | +6.1% | +9.8% | +17.7% | +8.3% | +9.2% | +2.3% | +0.1% | -1.1% | +3.1% | +0.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $420K | $404K | $375K | $457K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $603K | $665K | $699K | $586K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$420K to $603K
35.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$457K to $586K
24.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amesbury Town · Amesbury · (Tract 2662) | $505K | $521K | +3.3% | |
| Lynn (Tract 205600) | $520K | $602K | +15.8% | |
| Lynn (Tract 205700) | $505K | $557K | +10.4% | |
| Lynn (Tract 206300) | $504K | $551K | +9.3% | |
| Salem | $503K | $540K | +7.5% | |
| Amesbury Town | $502K | $507K | +0.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amesbury Town · Amesbury · (Tract 2662) | $505K | $521K | +3.3% | |
| Saugus | $629K | $758K | +20.6% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 251600) | $452K | $545K | +20.5% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 250800) | $365K | $434K | +19.0% | |
| Rockport | $784K | $927K | +18.2% | |
| Danvers | $709K | $834K | +17.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amesbury Town · Amesbury · (Tract 2662) | $505K | $521K | $323K | |
| Amesbury Town | $502K | $507K | $215K | |
| Danvers | $601K | $607K | $193K | |
| Haverhill | $381K | $391K | $156K | |
| Lynn | $336K | $358K | $148K | |
| Lawrence | $241K | $250K | $122K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.